August 10, 2011
Monsanto To Consider Bonus Issue
Current close 1877 today was up 16%
Link
April 10, 2011
Raymond Monsanto SRF and ACE
Raymond (Rs 367.5): Raymond was moving at a sedate pace, in the band between Rs 180 and Rs 270, till August this year. But the stock suddenly spiked higher this month to record an increase of Rs 185 or 81 per cent in just nine sessions. Immediate resistance for the stock is at Rs 416. This is a key medium- and long-term resistance since it occurs at 61.8 per cent retracement of the decline from May 2006 peak.
Investors with short- to medium-term perspective can divest some of their holdings on a failure to move beyond this resistance. Stop-loss for investors with medium-term horizon can be at Rs 280 while long-term investors can hold the stock with stop at Rs 200.
Long-term targets on a weekly close above Rs 416 are at Rs 480 and Rs 625.
Monsanto India (Rs 1,836): If we consider the long-term chart of Monsanto India, the stock is straggling along in a trading band between Rs 1,100 and Rs 2,500 since October 2003. Upper target for the long-term will stay in the zone between Rs 2,200 and Rs 2,500. It is hard to envisage a break beyond this zone just yet. But if the stock does so, next target would be Rs 2,900.
Investors can hold the stock with the stop at Rs 1,400. Medium-term range for the stock is likely to be between Rs 1,500 and Rs 2,000. Short-term investors can buy close to the lower boundary and sell near the upper.Can you please clarify whether the stop-loss levels recommended in your column for medium-term refer to daily closing or weekly closing basis? S. Uma
The stop-loss recommended for medium- and long-term investors is on a weekly closing basis. This is because stocks often tend to breach the stop-loss on a particular day but they tend to move back below the stop in a day or two. Such moves are called false break-outs. Adhering to stops on a daily basis for medium-term holdings will result in premature exit from a position.
It is also recommended to have a filter of three sessions for medium-term positions. That is, the stock should continue to close below a stop for three sessions before it is assumed as violated. This will take care of instances when stop-losses are breached on Friday or close to the weekend. This will also prevent a wrong closing out of positions due to whip-saw movements in stock prices.
SRF (Rs 216.7): The long-term decline that commenced from the July 2006 peak of Rs 373 came to an end in February 2009 at Rs 62.
A strong fight-back was witnessed since this low and the stock has retraced half of the down-move recorded from 2006 when it made the peak of Rs 220 in October last year. However, the resistance around Rs 220 is proving to be too strong to breach and the stock has made three unsuccessful attempts to do so over the last seven months.
That said the reversals from this peak have been quite shallow resulting in a sideways move between Rs 170 and Rs 220 in the aforementioned period.
Investors with medium-term investment horizon can hold the stock with stop at Rs 168. It can attempt to move to Rs 258 over this period.
The long-term trend will however turn positive only on a strong weekly close above Rs 258, subsequently paving the way for a rally to the stock's former peak at Rs 373. Long-term investors can hold the stock as long as it trades above Rs 150.
Action Construction Equipment (Rs 50.2): Action Construction Equipment was
one of the stocks that had a stellar run in the last quarter of 2007 only to be decimated in the crash that followed. The recovery that ensued from the first quarter of last year has not yet managed to take the stock above the key intermediate term trend deciding level of Rs 57.
The stock needs to record at least two weekly closes above this level to signal that it is on the road to a sustainable recovery. Else it can decline to Rs 27 or even below. A sideways move between Rs 27 and Rs 60 then becomes a strong likelihood for the medium-term.
A close above Rs 57 can take the stock higher to Rs 71 or Rs 86 over the long-term. It is hard to envisage a move beyond Rs 86 in the foreseeable future and investors can divest part of their holding on a failure to move beyond this level.
SRF (Rs 344.3): SRF faces key long-term resistance at Rs 375. Since the stock is reversing lower after moving close to this zone, the correction can now pull the stock down to Rs 330 or Rs 310. Investors with short- to medium-term perspective can cash out at this level since the stock is likely to struggle to move above Rs 375 in the ensuing months.
Investors with long-term perspective can hold with stop at Rs 300. Next downward target is Rs 270. Strong move above Rs 375 is required to take the stock to its record peak of Rs 444.
Monsanto India (1,897.2): Monsanto India is also reversing downward from its key long-term resistance at Rs 1,975. This decline can pull the stock to Rs 1,800 or Rs 1,700 over the ensuing weeks. Investors with short-term perspective can book some profit at current level and hold the rest with stop at Rs 1,800. The stock will however find it hard to move above Rs 1,975 in the upcoming months. A broad side-ways move between Rs 1,700 and Rs 2,000 appears likely over the medium-term.
I have invested in Monsanto India at Rs 1,450 with long term perspective. The stock has been falling since January. What would be the technical stop loss if you suggest a ‘hold’? Does the gap left on daily charts in June 2008 need to be filled? Sandeep Dhawan
Monsanto India (Rs 1,488.1): Monsanto India has been moving in a broad range between Rs 1,500 and 2,500 since 2004. This stock is currently poised close to the lower end of its long-term range. The stock is certainly a ‘hold’ at this juncture. The stop loss level for long-term investors ought to be at Rs 1,100. Those wishing to acquire this stock can do so in the band between Rs 1,100 and Rs 1,400. A rally towards Rs 2,200 is likely over the next couple of years. Medium-term resistances for the stock would be at Rs 1,600 and then Rs 1,750.
Though we are positive regarding the long-term prospects of Monsanto, it would not do to wait for the gap in the chart formed in June 2008 to be filled anytime soon. The gap in question is a breakaway gap that followed a sideways movement between Rs 1,850 and Rs 2,000. Breakaway gaps occur at major reversal points and are not always filled. Secondly, the gap in June along with the gap in the daily chart in May formed an island cluster reversal pattern. This pattern too implies a significant turnaround that takes a while to reverse.
I would like to know the importance of trading volume in the context of technical analysis. — Sandeep Dhawan
Trading volume has relevance while studying chart patterns and arriving at investment decision based on technical analysis. Typically, a move in price that is accompanied by a pick-up in trading volume would be considered as a healthy sign. Investment positions may be considered with a high degree of conviction in such a scenario, as it indicates that there is growing market interest towards the stock. This theory is valid for both upward and downward moves.
Typically, ahead of a sharp move, price tends to congest in a narrow trading zone while the daily trading volume tends to swell. As the buying pressure builds up, prices tend to explode in the direction of the breakout. Similarly, after a prolonged upward or downward move, the momentum behind the earlier move would wane. Trading volumes would also subside. Prices would get into a consolidation mode and trading volumes would gradually pick-up, resulting in the reversal of the earlier trend. Identifying such trend reversals early would be a key aspect to success at market place.
October 25, 2010
Buy Monsanto India

As long as it is trading above 2020 it could move to 3300 over a period of time.
August 31, 2010
90% of cotton area under Bt
Jagresh Rana, director, Mahyco Monsanto Biotech (India) said, “Year-on-year, farmers have continued to adopt Bt cotton, which has resulted in higher yields and significant higher incomes.”
“Adoption of cotton technology in over 90 per cent of the cotton acreages this year, clearly demonstrates the benefits farmers are experiencing from Bt Cotton. Their increasing vote in favour of Bt cotton technology is an example of how innovation and technology have helped them increase farming efficiencies, get better yields and better income. It is testimony to the fact that there is a growing need to create an environment where farmers have access to more such beneficial technologies.”
Source / Full article : Business Standard
August 28, 2010
Buy Monsanto India

weekly chart
August 20, 2010
Monsanto plans 2 high-yielding corn hybrids by 2011
Monsanto India (MIL), the leading hybrid seed and technology provider, plans to launch two high-yielding hybrid variety of maize, next year.The premium seeds Dekalb 9108 and Dekalb 9106 will be available during spring and the kharif seasons in Uttar Pradesh and Punjab, respectively.
Dekalb is now available in 14 high-yielding hybrid varieties that are suited for different agro climatic conditions — different kinds of soil, water availability, moisture etc.
Dekalb 9108 is best suited for the spring season in Uttar Pradesh, while Dekalb 9106 is unique to the summer heat in Punjab. The seeds will help increase yield provided the farmers follow best farming practices, said Amitabh Jaipuria, managing director of MIL.
MIL’s focus continues to be on delivering higher yield for Indian farms through superior seeds and farmer education. It’s breeding research efforts are focused on yield enhancement, abiotic stresses (heat and drought), biotic stress (disease resistance) and latest molecular techniques to make breeding faster and efficient.
for full article Economic TimesMarch 07, 2010
Why I am bullish on Monsanto India ?

Buy Monsanto cmp 1842 for target of 1998 - 2145-2332-2875 1680 deep stop loss and 1780 short term stop loss. I would suggest this rally can take it to 2875 level if one can HOLD.
Charts shows formation of multiple shoulders, which is more power full pattern then simple HnS or I Hns
Tgt 2875
February 11, 2010
BT Brinjal Controversy: How safe is it?
We have no other choice one day, why not accept today.
Should ask the lobby who are against it how many times they fed or taken care of poor peoples who sleeps empty stomach or how many times they saved the life of anyone ? Are they talking about the safety concern ?
Only Because of their profession or ... ?
In Medical science we have no options and so we accepted the medical science technology else environmentalist could see professional growth in that area also
In future we will have no other option to accept GM crops as they can not only increase yield and productivity but much more
Disclosure : i will continue to hold Monsanto India
December 12, 2008
Monsanto sees India adopting biotech corn in 5 yrs
"There is a fundamental (amount of) time that is required for crops to be evaluated ... We can be in the four-year time frame, but my guess is we will be in the five-year time frame on this one," Sekhar Natarajan, head of Monsanto's Indian operations, said in an interview with Reuters.
Monsanto, which has been operating in India for almost six decades, recently got approvals to start initial trials for some varieties of its YieldGard and Roundup Ready corn seeds.
India has taken a conservative approach to the adoption of biotech crops due to efficacy- and safety-related concerns. The country only approved Monsanto's Bollgard BT cotton trait in 2002. Since then it has also approved Bollgard II technology -- the traits protect the cotton crop against bollworms and other pests.
The Bollgard traits -- which are marketed by MMB, an equally owned joint venture with Maharashtra Hybrid Seeds Co -- have been a success for the company, and in 2008 Bollgard seeds were grown on 17.2 million acres, or 76 percent of India's total cotton acreage, according to Monsanto.
Monsanto contends that the wide acceptance of Bollgard has moved India from being a net importer of cotton to being the world's second-largest exporter.
"We are seeing how small farmers, given the right tools, innovations and technologies, can really turn around and make India a powerhouse in agricultural crops," said Natarajan.
Monsanto is now conducting trials on its third generation of Bollgard cotton, which it hopes to launch in about three years. The new seeds will be stacked with a Roundup Ready trait, which will make the crop tolerant of glyphosate -- a common herbicide used for weed control that was originally developed by Monsanto.
DOUBLING REVENUE
In fiscal 2007, Monsanto India Ltd, which is 72 percent owned by Monsanto Co, posted revenues of 3.4 billion rupees, or about $70.4 million.
In India, Monsanto is currently focused on expanding its corn, cotton and vegetable seeds businesses, while also growing its glyphosate herbicide business.
Monsanto is pushing to convert more Indian corn farmers to using hybrid seeds. Only 45 percent of the corn grown in India currently comes from hybrid seeds, so the company sees strong growth potential in this market, even before the commercialization of biotech corn seeds.
Natarajan sees the drought-tolerance traits which Monsanto is currently developing as proving to be a great prospect for Indian farmers in the years ahead, as crop yields in many parts of India are primarily limited by a lack of adequate irrigation.
The company would consider making acquisitions in India to grow its businesses, said Natarajan.
"I look at Monsanto in India as in a growth mode. But, yes we are going to be careful about how we invest, because we don't want to throw caution to the wind."
($1 = 48.30 Indian rupees) (Reporting by Euan Rocha, editing by Gerald E. McCormick)
Source : Guardian.co.uk
January 13, 2008
Seeds: The next big growth story in agriculture
Seeds are going to be the next big growth story in agriculture. Companies that develop, produce and market seeds will reap profits as Indian lifestyles and diets become richer. There are five reasons for my optimism. One, now that farmers have cash in hand, they want to invest in seeds which produce faster, healthier and larger crops from the same kerchief-sized plots.
Indian farmers have traditionally been reluctant to invest in technology. When it is cheaper to simply save a quarter of the crop as seeds for next year, why invest? But when the market is clearly able to pay your price, no farmer with the wherewithal is willing to be defeated by weather, poor rains, tired soils or farm size in his quest for profit.
In crops such as rice, cotton, fruits, potatoes, tomatoes, and vegetables, hybrids and genetically modified seeds have taken over the market completely. Cotton seed and rice hybrid breeding is increasingly industrialised and commercialised.
Production of high oil content seeds for soyabeans and rapeseed is increasing. India has a total sown area of 170 mn hectares. Grains and oilseeds take up the largest share, but the planted area for vegetables, flowers, fruits is increasing. Multiple cropping itself generates enormous year-round seed demand.
Two, plenty of government investment is now flowing into seeds to achieve its concurrent goals of food self-reliance and rural development. Private seed companies now have quick and cheap access to cutting edge research in agricultural universities, IARI research stations, Icrisat and IRRI through public-private partnerships.
Three, maintaining a stable supply of certified high quality seeds for major grain crops is a stated priority for the Indian government. State and central governments are investing in setting up seed production centres, both for traditional and hybrid high-yielding varieties.
Four, the booming Indian economy has made us all very conscious of our urban landscape, living and working spaces, gardens, and public buildings. Most corporate offices now boast of an indoor plants supplier. All home decor magazines have a section now on gardening and landscapes. The Commonwealth Games in Delhi alone are likely to push up demand for ornamental plants, grass and flowers. New golf courses are pushing up demand for grass and turf. The constant increase in the turf grass and grass seed imports is mainly driven by beautification programmes in urban areas.
Planting of grass and flowers in parks, zoos, lawns and on roadsides is rising fast. Although official data is not available, the sod demand remains strong by numerous new neighbourhoods in cities mostly built with open green spaces and even sports facilities. The future of urban beautification landscaping and the nursery sector is bright.
Five, India has a natural advantage in seeds due to lower labour costs. That makes it worthwhile for companies to produce hybrid seeds for overseas markets at lower costs compared to other countries. Export of vegetables, rice and fruit seed are leading the pack. Contracted seed breeding by companies is increasing rapidly.
With steadily climbing demand, in 2005-06, India imported seeds worth $30 million, a $9-mn jump over the previous year. Increased vegetable seed imports show how changing diets and strong vegetable product exports are affecting agriculture. The rapid growth of dairy and livestock sector is driving the demand for high quality forage seeds.
It is true that the Indian seed industry continues to be fragmented, but the trend for restructuring is accelerating. The fragmented seed market originates from our old planned economy, which created a model of segregated research/development, breeding, and marketing.
Even now, few companies have their own R&D labs. Some only sell seeds. Developers are mostly state or IARI-sponsored agricultural research institutes and universities, while seed companies are responsible for breeding and marketing seeds to farmers.
Another serious problem is that there are too many varieties for each crop in the market (in particular for corn, rice, and cotton), and few of them show significant genetic advantage. So the popularity of each variety is usually limited.
This makes ensuring quality and marketing new varieties tough and complex. But the signs of change are all around us. New integrated trans-national players such as Bayer, DuPont, Monsanto, Syngenta, Advanta are shifting the dynamics of trade with new business models that include comprehensive variety development, seed breeding, and marketing systems. Some have set up independent research facilities, which enable them to develop their own new varieties and retain intellectual property rights.
The Indian seed industry is already a billion-dollar industry and the eighth largest in the world. It is growing every year by 12%, and that too when only a quarter of all farms are sown with new seeds every year. With more farmers becoming brand and variety conscious, more parks in our neighbourhoods and more veggies on our plates, the potential is mind-boggling.
Seeds allow you to enjoy returns from the cutting edge of modern agriculture at a time of unprecedented economic prosperity. India may be a country of nano cars and nano farms. But the big boys are definitely betting on them. Seeds of great profit are constantly floating around us. Time to look around for a place to sow them.
Source : ET
January 05, 2008
Monsanto profit nearly triples
The global seed company says revenue surged 36 percent on strength in Latin American business; raises '08 outlook.
ST. LOUIS (AP) -- Monsanto Co. reported Thursday that its first-quarter earnings nearly tripled because of surprisingly strong pesticide and seed sales in Latin America. It boosted its earnings forecast for the year, and its shares leapt 7 percent in midday trading.
The world's biggest seed company earned $256 million, or 46 cents per share, during the first fiscal quarter ended Nov. 30 - almost triple its profit of $90 million, or 16 cents per share, during the same period last year.
Revenue during the first quarter surged 36 percent to $2.1 billion, from $1.54 billion in the prior-year period.
The results beat expectations on Wall Street, where analysts had predicted a profit of 35 cents per share on revenue of $1.87 billion, according to a poll by Thomson Financial.
Monsanto's stock rose $7.79 to $119.26 in midday trading Thursday after rising to a 52-week high of $120.04 in earlier trading. Its shares have traded as low as $49.10 over the past year.
Unexpectedly strong Latin American sales of the pesticide Roundup caused Monsanto to increase its year-end profit forecast to between $2.50 to $2.60 a share from between $2.20 to $2.40 a share.
Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expect Monsanto (MON, Fortune 500) to deliver profits of $2.59 per share this year, near the high end of Monsanto's new guidance.
CEO Hugh Grant said he was impressed with the jump in Roundup sales, but the company still plans to reap most of its future profit growth from developing new genetically engineered seeds.
"While we're delighted with the work of the Roundup teams globally, our success in seeds and traits will ultimately determine how we meet our 2008 commitments and our 2012 targets," Grant told analysts during a conference call Thursday morning.
Rising sales of Roundup in Brazil and Argentina mean the pesticide will deliver roughly $1 billion in gross profit by the end of the year, up from the $950 million the company estimated just over a month ago, said Chief Financial Officer Terrell Crews.
The company said total seed and genomics sales rose to $836 million from $680 million in the year-ago quarter. Agricultural sales rose to $1.26 billion from $859 million a year agoSource : Money CNN
December 21, 2007
One Little Seed, Eight Special Genes- Monsanto
Monsanto plans a super corn seed to ward off weeds and bugs
If a seed is a little package of life, then the genes inside it are life's instruction manual. Monsanto's (MON) expertise is rewriting those instructions to make fully grown plants do unexpected things, like survive a bath in herbicide and kill root-eating beetles. The company's most ambitious project yet, a partnership with rival Dow AgroSciences (DOW), aims to create a corn seed with eight specially tailored genetic traits, surpassing Monsanto's three-trait corn available now.Due out in 2010, the so-called SmartStax seed will contain six genes that ward off bugs and two genes that help plants ward off pesticides. The goal is an all-in-one seed for farmers to fight the twin plagues of insects and weeds. The company expects a blockbuster, projecting that SmartStax eventually could be planted on 100 million acres worldwide.
The key scientific challenge is not simply getting eight foreign genes into a plant cell. It's getting this genetic cut-and-paste job to produce a healthy, functioning plant. That doesn't require theoretical genius so much as hours of painstaking labor.
When scientists want to create a seed with a particular trait—say, a toxin that kills caterpillars—they'll place a corn embryo in a petri dish. On it, they'll pour a solution of agrobacterium, a soil bacteria that acts as a natural genetic ferry. The agrobacterium carries the gene for the toxin into the cells of the corn embryo.
There's no guarantee this genetic transfer will work. Some cells sprout into plantlets, but others grow without the right properties. "It's random," says Eric Sachs, Monsanto's global head for scientific affairs. So a researcher performs the maneuver many times and identifies the cells that work. Those few are cultivated in temperature- and light-controlled chambers.
Once the corn plants with the right traits are created through this process, they're bred together. To make the eight-trait seed, four separate lines of corn, each with two of the desired genetic traits inside, are crossed.
The joint venturers are hoping that SmartStax will allow farmers to plant more gene-modified crops. Right now, the worry is that bugs will develop resistance to the pesticide in the corn. So the Environmental Protection Agency requires farmers to sow 20% of their plots with regular corn. That ensures some normal pests survive. Otherwise a breed of hard-to-kill superbugs would evolve. But Monsanto argues that SmartStax's multiple bug-killers are so effective that no bugs will be able to develop resistance. So it asked the EPA to reduce the refuge requirement to 5%. But entomologists have concerns about the proposal, and approval isn't a sure thing.
Source : Business Week> Monsanto and Monsanto India are different entities.
June 08, 2007
Use biotech to boost farm productivity: Chidambaram
'At a time when the services sector is growing by 30 percent, the manufacturing sector by 12 percent per annum, the slow growth rate (2.4 percent) in the agriculture sector and stagnant food production is a cause for concern,' he said.
Though the biotech sector has achieved remarkable breakthroughs in pharma and cash crops such as BT cottonseeds, the need of the hour is to step-up yields of rice, wheat, pulses and oilseeds to meet the growing demand for essential commodities and check the price rice, according to the finance minister.
'No country as large as India with over a billion mouths can expect to meet the food needs by imports, which can only be a temporary measure. The total acreage of land for cultivating basic food crops such as wheat and paddy (rice) has remained stagnant for long. Production also remained near stagnant and below world average. Yield gaps vary between states as well as crops.'It is the biotech sector which can usher in the second green revolution by applying biotechnology and bio-resources in food crops as it has been doing of late in cash crops like BT cotton. The challenge for Indian scientists is to replicate the breakthroughs in food crops, while addressing concerns about genetic engineering at the same time,' Chidambaram told about 800 delegates participating in the trade event.
With the GDP growing at eight-nine percent and demand for food articles growing, thanks to the increasing purchasing power and greater consumption, the government had been forced to import wheat, pulses and oilseeds to check the price rise and moderate inflation.
'Instead of exporting rice and wheat, we are importing pulses and oilseeds to bridge the demand-supply gap and control prices. To reverse the situation, biotechnology and bio-resources have to be invested in food crops to not only meet the growing demand, but also achieve self-sufficiency to avoid imports,' Chidambaram pointed out.
Lauding the achievements of the sector in bio-pharma, bio-informatics and bio-research leading to drug discovery, new molecules and clinical development, the finance minister said the 35 percent growth achieved in the last fiscal (FY 2007) had pitch-forked India to the third position after Japan and South Korea in the Asia-Pacific region.
'I have no doubt the sector will move to the frontline of bio-pharma on global scale. Besides balancing cost, quality and effectiveness of generic or new drugs, pharma companies have to find cures for dreaded diseases such as HIV, AIDS and hepatitis,' Chidambaram noted.
Admitting funding and talent resource were critical to the rapid growth of the biotech sector, he said the government would address the early stage funding issue and facilitate building the human capital by the industry as well as the academia.
'We are aware of the problem. We have already amended the Income Tax Act to channel venture capital into high-risk funding from low-risk,' the minister added.Source : news.smashits.com
Time to repeat Bt cotton success in foodgrain: FM
“It is important to apply biotechnology in agriculture. What has been done with Bt cotton must be done with foodgrains,” Chidambaram said at the opening of the seventh edition of Bangalore’s annual biotechnology event Bio-2007 on Thursday.
Concerns over the safety of genetically modified produce “must be faced at an intellectual level by scientists. It cannot be brushed aside by emotion and political arguments,” he said.
While the biotechnology sector is growing in India fuelled by the growth of the bio-pharma and bio-services sectors, the real need is for the growth of agri-biotech, Chidambaram said referring to the stagnant production of rice and wheat.
“Bt cotton has made India a cotton exporting country. We thought of ourselves as exporters of wheat and rice, but today we import wheat. No country as large as India can survive on imports for its food needs,” the Finance Minister pointed out. The production figures for rice and wheat are far below the world average and yield gaps vary dramatically across different states, he said.
The success achieved in cotton production must be used to make the country self-sufficient in rice, wheat, pulses and oil seeds production, he said.
According to the president of the Association of Biotechnology-led Enterprises (ABLE) and managing director of the agri-biotech company Metahelix, K K Narayanan, cotton production in the country increased from 140 lakh bales in 2002 to 270 lakh bales last year. From being a net importer in 2003-4, India became a net exporter of cotton in 2006-7 with yields increasing from 300 kg per hectare in 2002 to 500 kg at present, he said. India had surpassed China as the country with the largest acreage of BT cotton cultivation and is now one of the largest exporters of BT seeds, he added.
“The total cotton area in India is approximately nine million hectare and 70 per cent of this is hybrid cotton. Of the hybrid cotton area, 9.5 million acres is BT cotton in comparison to 77,000 acres in 2002,” he said.
At Thursday’s inauguration of the Bangalore Bio 2007 event Chidambaram also provided a recipe for building a knowledge society in India.
April 22, 2007
Monsanto India " Sowing Seed of Growth "
Investors with a long investment horizon can consider exposure to the Monsanto India stock at the current price levels of about Rs 1,400. Though the company's recent financial performance has been unimpressive, long-term prospects for the domestic seeds business, on which the company is now refocusing, are bright. Given that the business is research-driven and technology intensive, entry barriers to the business are high, translating into good growth prospects for entrenched players such as Monsanto India.
The recent listing of Advanta India, which has a global presence in the seeds business, is also likely to lend greater visibility to this business, on the bourses. The growth prospects for the conventional herbicide business, though modest in the near-term, also appear stable for players such as Monsanto, given the robust product pipeline and the focus on premium, less price-sensitive segments of the market. The Monsanto stock trades at about 14 times its trailing 12-month earnings per share.
Seeds business
Though crop protection, with a focus on herbicides, has traditionally been the key revenue driver for Monsanto India, the company has been increasing its focus on the hybrid seeds business over the past couple of years. The seeds business accounted for 53 per cent of Monsanto's sales in 2005-06, up from 21 per cent five years ago, while the contribution of the herbicides business fell from 65 per cent to 31 per cent. The increasing shortfall of key food and commercial crops, the rising pressure to step up farm productivity (Indian yields of most crops are far below global averages) and the economics of adopting high-yielding seed varieties for the farmer are the demand drivers for high-yielding seeds.
However, plant breeding (developing new seed varieties) is a specialised business that involves a fairly long gestation period and calls for considerable research strengths and access to proprietary germplasm. In this respect, the backing of Monsanto India's parent — Monsanto US, a global leader in the seeds and traits business, and the latter's strong product pipeline — is a strong positive for Monsanto India. Monsanto India currently markets seeds in India under the Dekalb brand name (a global brand) and focusses mainly on maize (corn).
The demand growth
The demand for maize in the Indian market has consistently raced ahead of available supplies. Going forward, the demand growth for corn is likely to be strong on the back of expansion in the organised poultry industry and the growth in corn-based snack foods and starch-based industries. Though adoption of hybrid maize seeds has sharply increased sharply in the Southern States, considerable potential for hybridisation exists in the Northern states, where about 70 per cent of the maize acreage is still under conventional varieties.
In the herbicides business, Monsanto has traditionally focussed on branded specialty products through well-recognised brands such as Leader, Roundup, Machete and Fastmix. However, price competition in this business is high, with several domestic players emerging as low-cost manufacturers of agrochemical formulations. Since the profitability of new products tends to wane quickly after the initial years, success in this business depends on a robust product pipeline and a steady stream of launches, apart from the company's brand equity.
Though Monsanto is well-placed on this front on account of its global product pipeline and focus on commercial crops and food grains, it is not immune to price competition. This appears to be the key reason for the company's recent sale of its Leader herbicide business to Sumitomo and its increasing focus on the seeds business.
These rationalisation efforts also explain the company's unimpressive financial performance in recent quarters, after a steady pace of earnings growth in earlier years.
However, only investors willing to wait for two-three years should invest in the Monsanto India stock now.
The final quarter of the financial year is usually a poor one for agrochemical companies such as Monsanto India, given the seasonality of the business. Moreover, though long-term prospects for its businesses are bright, the company's near-term financial performance could be modest on account of the ongoing shift in business focus and the restructuring efforts.
Source : Business LineApril 19, 2007
Monsanto developing drought-tolerant seeds
Besides, it has been attempting to commercialise the drought-tolerant seeds of corn and cotton, which are currently undergoing field trials. Also in its pipeline are health-friendly products, including those rich in Omega-3, that reduce the risk of heart attacks
“The first drought-tolerant crops are being improved to tolerate insufficient amount of water,” said Dr Harvey Glick, director, Scientific Affairs, Monsanto Company in an e-mailed response.
The drought-tolerant technology would lead to yield insurance, yield enhancement and cost savings on the irrigated land.
“Today, agriculture is, without question, the largest consumer of water. Hence, the first-generation trait won’t be a one-size-fits-all approach. We’re working on a family of traits to address the challenge of drought tolerance in farming operations,” Glick said.
“Our first-generation Vistive product saw a stronger demand from farmers and food companies than we expected. Kellogg’s December announcement about using our Vistive technology as a part of its initiative to lower trans-fats in its products is a further confirmation of the value of this technology. In 2007, we will be crossing some commercial milestones,” he added.
In 2005, farmers in the US grew Vistive soybeans spread over 100,000 acres. In 2006, the cultivated area went up to 500,000 acres and this year, the company expects Vistive technology to be used over 1.5 million acres globally.
The company is targeting an expanded geographical range for soybeans, with over 3,000 farmers covering three maturity zones, thus enhancing the already reliable seed/dealer network. It is planning to be in more than 10 seed varieties, up from one.
The cost of research for developing new crops is expensive and hence, the Indian farmers would perhaps have to pay a premium due to company’s estimated investment of around $100 million and a gestation period of about 10 years.
Source : Business Standard