We trade only price. We do not trade information. We do not trade knowledge (of the asset being traded). Nor do we trade computing power or expertise. We do not trade anything at all other than price: ie: the number. Therefore since the only factor that counts in this game is the price, it is only smart to focus all, or almost all, our attention on this number on the pice and its movement; in other words, what the price has done in the past and is doing in the present. Approach the game/business of trading in this manner - an up down number game where the focus is on what the price does and not why - and you will be on the right path to success as a trader
You are trading against the wealthiest and most knowledgeable people and organizations in the world.Do not delude yourself, you cannot compete on their terms: information, knowledge, experience, staying power, and so on.Do not spend time and energy trying to figure out why a price moves.Focus all your attention and energy solely on what the price is doing.You are a trader. A trader does not get paid to understand or explain why something has happened. The question "why?" deals with the past. The question "what?" deals with the present and provides the best clues to the future. And never forget that you are trading "futures," not "pasts." Discovering the supposed "why" of a price move will provide you with little more than temporary intellectual comfort. Whereas observing and focusing on what the price has done and is doing will help you anticipate what the price will do in the future. Leave the intellectualizing to those paid for their words not their deeds, i.e., journalists and brokerage house analysts
Predictions tend to lock you into a preconceived scenario of the future making it more difficult for you to adapt to unforeseen events.Futures trading is not like betting on a horse race. In futures trading you can change your bet as the race progresses. In trading, as soon as you make a specific prediction about where a market is going, you sacrifice your freedom. A trader must always feel free to change trading positions on very short notice. And most importantly, you do not need to be good at predicting to do well at trading. If making predictions can be quite harmful and you do not need to be good at predicting in order to be successful, why bother with predicting at all?
December 21, 2006
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